INCLUDE_DATA

Nullius in Verba

July 6, 2007

Live Stupid

Remember when a bunch of rock musicians got together and solved third world poverty? (Most of the money was stolen by corrupt Ethiopian politicians, and there is good evidence some was used by thugs to forcefully oppress several hundred thousand people.) Heck, forget about free trade, capital markets, democracy, property rights, civil order, and global investment - lets just transfer a bunch of money to them and they’ll be all right.

After all subsidies have been working for the natives in North America, fishers in the Atlantic, car producers in Windsor, and forestry mills in BC for years. Right? Nope, this little economic truth called rent seeking means all that money has been flowing into the hands of thieves and lawyers for years.

Why the heck, me included, are people so willing to pay money to screw themselves?


(In Western culture, foolish gluttony is often represented by a continually growing Leviathan that is difficult to kill)

Real scientists ask questions, and are rarely willing to go on TV and make broad ranging statements. Scientists tend to be cautious and always re-evaluate the evidence.

Thats why when respected researchers like Roger A. Pielke, a climatologist with hundreds of papers in climate journals makes statements like:

In terms of climate change and variability on the regional and local scale, the IPCC Reports, the CCSP Report on surface and tropospheric temperature trends, and the U.S. National Assessment have overstated the role of the radiative effect of the anthropogenic increase of CO2 relative to the role of the diversity of other human climate climate forcing on global warming, and more generally, on climate variability and change.

Or William Gray, who said:

Gray acknowledges that we’ve had some warming the past 30 years. “I don’t question that,” he explains. “And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle ’40s to the middle ’70s.”

And Richard Lindzen (an author of IPCC 1 who withdrew from what he calls quackery) and Chris Landsea (who withdrew from IPCC 4 because it was too politicized and not scientific) and so on.

I tend to believe these scientists over people with no credibility like David Suzuki or Al Goreacle. Now don’t get me wrong, Pielke, for example, believes in climate change on a local level due to anthropogenic effects and that is what his research is focused on. What he stresses is that we really don’t know what we are talking about on the global picture. I think he’s right on there.

(Watch this commercial and tell me why Suzuki isn’t telling people to shut off their wasteful outside lights, instead of recommending bulb changes. This just sums up their mentality - simply dumb)

The IPCC has been infiltrated by horrible politicos, bent on only one thing - transferring wealth. The real goal of Kyoto is to transfer money to third world countries in the form of imaginary CO2 credits. I mean even if we followed Kyoto to the nuttiest of its conclusions we’d only be reducing the increase in theoretical global warming by 0.2 degrees. Its like throwing a 2 cm piece of Black and Decker fridge ice into a volcano. It isn’t doing anything.

The reality is the IPCC conclusions are constantly being challenged. When some IPCC scientists that have signed the document have asked to have their names removed, and some have quit the organization altogether one should start to some raise flags of one’s own. Especially when scientists left because they felt science was becoming political.

A recent article in the journal, Science, points how how flawed the computer generated projections likely are, and more insidiously, how ad hoc they may be.

But the group of three atmospheric scientists–Charlson; Stephen Schwartz of the Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, New York; and Henning Rodhe of Stockholm University, Sweden–says the close match between models and the actual warming is deceptive. The match “conveys a lot more confidence [in the models] than can be supported in actuality,” says Schwartz.

To prove theirpoint, the commentary authors note the range of the simulated warmings, that is, the width of the purple band. The range is only half as large as they would expect it to be, they say, considering the large range of uncertainty in the factors driving climate change in the simulations. Greenhouse-gas changes are well known, they note, but not so the counteracting cooling of pollutant hazes, called aerosols. Aerosols cool the planet by reflecting away sunlight and increasing the reflectivity of clouds. Somehow, the three researchers say, modelers failed to draw on all the uncertainty inherent in aerosols so that the 20th-century simulations look more certain than they should.

Just as flawed are the new Live Earth concerts. A bunch of musicians are going to travel the world releasing tons of CO2 putting on a concert to tell everyone to stop releasing CO2. This is not much different, except on a larger scale, to David Suzuki’s recent tour across Canada in a gas guzzling tour bus used simply for his own comfort. We’re all going to pay to see it, releasing even more CO2. This series of concerts could themselves release more CO2 than many third world nations.


(Genesis on Stage. What would Suzuki and Ontario Hydro say about all those bulbs?)

This planet has ranged from friggin hot to not over milennia. Moreover there is a lot we don’t know.

Update:

Another CTV poll gone horribly wrong, as in not the way they wanted it to go. Usually they leave their polls up so that about 10000 people can vote, but they stopped this one quickly.

June 11, 2007

Those Figures…

Filed under: budget, complain, economics, transfer payments, unintended consequences — langmann @ 9:57 am

A while ago I put up a graph demonstrating why Danny me b’y Williams needs to STFU regarding this whole whine about Newfoundland and Labrador not getting enough moolah from the Federal Government. Since this time the other premiers of the Atlantic Provinces have started whining long and loud so that they get as much of the pie as they can when Stephen Harper realizes he’ll get no seats in the Atlantic area in the next election and caves into their demands.

Not Enough
(Federal Transfers (All) to Provinces Per Province Capita)

As usual the Mainstream Media (CTV CBC) have done a bang-up job of not explaining what the issue is about. Harper isn’t helping either because he’s been saying nothing about it on air. This leaves pug-dog yappers like Stephane Dion and Jack Layton to make all kinds of promises they could not keep.

I’m going to place into layman’s terms what the whining is all about right now. In this example the Corvette represents Natural Resourses such as oil:

Basically you have a room-mate friend who makes less money than you. So you agree to subsidize his rent a bit. You pay $350 per month and he pays $250. (You’re paying $50 in transfer payments to your room-mate). One day your room-mate inherits a Corvette from his dead uncle. Your room-mate needs cash so he sells the Corvette for $5000.

So you approach your room-mate and say, “Hey buddy, like, can you pay $300 a month now because you have $5000 in the bank?”

And he says, “No way man, that was a one time sale. I’m going to need that to pay my tuition debt, buy a gym membership, a TV and some CDs.”

So you tell your friend to fuck off, and everyone else takes his side.

These guys who wrote the AIMS Report basically use a convulted bit of accounting to explain why your friend is right not to help you out with the rent. They are saying that the Corvette is a financial asset which is still an asset when converted into money.

What it really comes down to is this. Either you believe that:

A) Subsidies should prop up poorer provinces. Poorer provinces shouldn’t have to balance their books, they should just be able to tap into the rest of our wallets to do it.

B) Poorer provinces should balance their books. If there are no jobs people should move to places where there are jobs and quit relying on government pogey.

The right answer that leads to economic prosperity is B even though it is a hard road for those people. But I had to move for work too so I have sympathy and understanding - but that’s life.

I have always maintained that instead of these crazy transfers and subsidies the government instead should give people money to move. In fact that is precisely why people went to Canada. Also it is why many Newfoundlanders are flying to Alberta to work on rigs. Responsible people know that they shouldn’t rely on the rest of us when they can do things for themselves as hard as it is.

What is often left conveniently out of any CTV or CBC report is that the experts agree and applaud the Harper government for enacting the clean and well thought out process for determining transfer payments. Not that I agree with this subsidy, of course.

What they should do is this. But then the world would be perfect.

Hieronymus Bosch - The Garden of Earthly Delights
(In Eden No One paid taxes and everything but apples were free)

April 4, 2007

Danny Williams Needs to STFU

Filed under: budget, complain, transfer payments, unintended consequences — langmann @ 3:22 am

Well well well. It hasn’t been more than five minutes since the Conservatives released their new budget for Newfoundland and Labrador (or more specifically Danny Williams) to start whining again and again. (See my previous post on whining and complaining and why transfer payments are a bad idea in general).

Hercules Chasing Avarice from the Temple of the Muses
(Hercules knew what to do with greedy people)

Let me be clear, first I am an honorary Newf, being married to one, and having been screeched in and “puffin-ed”, and having been and driven to the Rock more than one time too many. But it never feels like enough.

Bert

This time Danny b’y you just need to STFU because oh me nerves, dey got me drove [crazy]. NFLD has been raking it in for years. It sure doesn’t look like it is going to stop any time soon either, me lover.

From Stats Can, Total government transfers to provinces per capita. Well a piccie is worth 10,000 bucks any day:

 Suck it up Sukkas
(Take that Rest of Canada, Click Picture for Larger View)

So its time Danny, me boy, ye stopped complaining and diverting everyone’s attention from your own mistakes regarding how you’re chasing away big oil because you’re starting to do what this guy does.

I smell sulfur and it ain't Georgie Boy
(I smell sulfur and it ain’t Georgie Boy)

And dat, me b’y, been n’ar good.

Update:

 A Newfoundland economist finds that Newfoundland and Labradour do better under the new transfer payments agreement.

Powered by WordPress